It is thought that quantum computers will eventually be able to crack the encryption methods we use today, but exactly when this will happen is an open question. Now, one cryptographer has started a betting pool.
Cryptography experts are betting thousands of dollars on how long it will be until quantum computers can render modern encryption methods obsolete – but the smart money seems to be on this being a few decades away.
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| Encrypted data is safe from quantum computers, but for how long? Andriy Onufriyenko/Getty Images |
Writing on a mailing list devoted to post-quantum cryptography – a field that studies encryption methods that are resistant to the increased power of quantum computers – John Mattsson at Ericsson Research in Sweden offered a wager of $2050 that no quantum machine would break a 2048-bit RSA key by 2050.
RSA is a gold-standard form of encryption that uses keys created from prime numbers to “lock” away data to keep it safe, while the 2048 bits describes the size of such a key. A key of this size was the largest included in a competition launched by the creators of RSA to see if anyone could break this encryption, although the $200,000 prize money was never claimed. Longer keys require more computing power to crack, and are therefore more secure.
But while classical computers have struggled to do this with longer RSA keys, quantum computers can exploit the unusual properties of quantum physics to speed up the necessary calculations. They will render current encryption techniques obsolete once the hardware is sufficiently powerful and accurate. Exactly when that will be is open to debate.
Mattsson says that his motivation for making the wager was to spark discussion about the likely timescale, as many quantum computing start-ups are making bold claims about progress that he places “zero trust” in.
“I think there’s so much hype and so many false claims from the quantum community,” he says. “So I felt like somebody needs to say ‘no’ to this. I think we will see a very drastic reduction in the quantum computing industry.“
That said, Mattsson does think some organisations, such as national security agencies, do need to urgently move to post-quantum cryptography algorithms, otherwise adversaries could collect data now to decrypt in future decades when quantum computers are powerful enough. “They need to keep information secret for 50, 75 years,” he says.
Mattsson’s wager led to a queue of cryptography experts keen to stake their own cash. One was Daniel Bernstein, who took the US government to court in the 1990s to get it to allow the export of strong encryption software. He took the bet and gave his prediction for cracking the key as 2032.
Bernstein also says that spy agencies saying such a moment is “decades away” might be trying to mislead the public and slow the roll-out of quantum-resistant encryption algorithms so that they can continue to crack messages. “Every day that we fail to act is giving away more user data to attackers,” he says.
Paul Hoffman, who works with technical standards body the Internet Engineering Task Force investigating post-quantum cryptography, says he didn’t accept the bet because he’s 65 and “unlikely to care about the outcome 20 years from now”. But he says that quantum computers will crack encryption in 2060 “at the very earliest”, and that it is entirely possible that the moment will never come.
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