From avoiding the number seven to picking numbers over 31, mathematician Peter Rowlett has a few psychological strategies for improving your chances when playing the lottery.
WOULD you think I was daft if I bought a lottery ticket for the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6? There is no way those are going to be drawn, right? That feeling should – and, mathematically, does – actually apply to any set of six numbers you could pick.
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Lotteries are ancient. Emperor Augustus, for example, organised one to fund repairs to Rome. Early lotteries involved selling tickets and drawing lots, but the idea of people guessing which numbers would be drawn from a machine comes from Renaissance Genoa. A common format is a game that draws six balls from 49, studied by mathematician Leonhard Euler in the 18th century.
The probabilities Euler investigated are found by counting the number of possible draws. There are 49 balls that could be drawn first. For each of these, there are 48 balls that can be drawn next, so there are 49×48 ways to draw two balls. This continues, so there are 49×48×47×46×45×44 ways to draw six balls. But this number counts all the different arrangements of any six balls as a unique solution.
How many ways can we rearrange six balls? Well, we have six choices for which to put first, then for each of these, five choices for which to put second, and so on. So the number of ways of arranging six balls is 6×5×4×3×2×1, a number called 6! (six factorial). We divide 49×48×47×46×45×44 by 6! to get 13,983,816, so the odds of a win are near 1 in 14 million.
Since all combinations of numbers are equally likely, how can you maximise your winnings? Here is where maths meets psychology: you win more if fewer people share the prize, so choose numbers others don’t. Because people often use dates, numbers over 31 are chosen less often, as well as “unlucky” numbers like 13. A lot of people think of 7 as their favourite number, so perhaps avoid it. People tend to avoid patterns so are less likely to pick consecutive or regularly spaced numbers as they feel less random.
In July, David Cushing and David Stewart at the University of Manchester, UK, published a list of 27 lottery tickets that guarantee a win in the UK National Lottery, which uses 59 balls and offers a prize for matching two or more. But a win doesn’t always mean a profit – for almost 99 per cent of possible draws, their tickets match at most three balls, earning prizes that may not exceed the cost of the tickets!
So, is a lottery worth playing? Since less than half the proceeds are given out in prizes, you would probably be better off saving your weekly ticket money. But a lecturer of mine made an interesting cost-benefit argument. He was paid enough that he could lose the cost of a ticket each week without really noticing. But if he won the jackpot, his life would be changed. So, given that lottery profit is often used to support charitable causes, it might just be worth splurging.
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